As this year’s election cycle winds down and speculation about the next one begins, it is important to take note of the year’s wins and losses, even if the picture is still somewhat unclear.
The first and most obvious loss goes to the Democrats on Capitol Hill, who lost control of the House and several Senate seats in the latest midterm elections.
Speculation about the Democrats’ chances in 2012 is not optimistic, as the party will have to defend 23 Senate seats to the Republicans’ 10. Many of those up for election will be freshman senators who were elected during the Democratic takeover of the Senate in 2006.
Then again, Democrats have reason to celebrate the year’s accomplishments. The passage of the landmark health care bill, a catalyst of much controversy during the campaign season, is something that outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi can count as a victory.
An article by Slate Magazine’s national correspondent William Saletan posed important questions: Will Republicans really be willing to repeal this health care bill? How many Republicans will reopen the “donut hole” for senior citizens? Will they once again allow insurance companies to drop coverage of people who get sick, critically ill children and 18 - 25 year olds who cannot get employer-provided insurance?
Republicans who advocate these positions will find themselves on difficult footing. Senator John Ensign, a Nevada Republican, voted against the health care bill and has expressed outrage over earmark spending. He recently, however, requested a $960,000 earmark for a health care program operated by the University of Nevada.
Expect similar dichotomies between ideology and action throughout the 112th Congress. It remains to be seen whether state- or federal-level funding will be of greater importance as more provisions of the health care bill are enacted and funded.
Another expected victory became defeat upon the failure of Proposition 19 in California. Polls showed support for the proposition, which would have legalized and taxed marijuana sales in that state, until just before Election Day when support dropped dramatically.
Proposition 19 will not be the last of its kind. Throughout the past decade, Republicans have placed sensitive social issues – like gay marriage or abortion – on the ballot to energize the Republican base; expect Democrats to use a similar tactic.
Young voters, who vote overwhelmingly Democrat, could be motivated to get out to the polls by a pro-legalization initiative. Such a measure would energize a Democratic base in races where the party candidate is lagging – it would not be surprising to see a similar proposition in New York arise two years from now.
Another defeat – mostly for the American people – was the sheer amount of money pumped into this year’s campaigns. Outside groups contributed $200 million in attack ads this campaign season, and many were from foreign sources – a product of the Citizens United Supreme Court decision earlier this year.
Expect this amount to be even higher in 2012, an election year that will no doubt prove to be just as fiery as 2010 has been.