On Wednesday Nov. 10, guest speaker Audrey Kurth Cronin delivered a lecture titled “How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns.”
Cronin, a specialist in terrorism, is a professor of strategy at the National War College in Washington, D.C. She served in the U.S. government and has written numerous books on the subject of terrorism.
“Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns,” Cronin said. “They always come to an end – and often far more quickly than expected. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today’s terrorist groups.”
Cronin’s speech defined four different types of terrorism campaigns, attempted to debunk common myths about terrorism and explained patterns that apply to al-Qaida.
Terrorist groups use various strategies to change a state’s policy, Cronin said. She defined compellence, the most commonly known strategy, as the use of threats to stop or start a behavior. Another strategy used by terrorist organizations is that of provocation, which is defined as vigorous actions against a state.
“Terrorism on its own is relatively ineffective,” Cronin said. “However, when it provokes a state, it can result in the death of millions.” She cited the 19th century Russian nihilist movement, during which many Russian leaders were assassinated in an attempt to change the nation’s politics.
“Terrorism campaigns are meant to shock to further a political campaign,” Cronin said. “In the short term, attacks are meant to enrage the public and force the government into action.”
Cronin also attempted to dispel various myths surrounding terrorism. She said that the public often believes that addressing the causes of terrorism will always lead to an end.
“The reasons for terrorism campaigns begin broad and are replaced by smaller, tactile reasons,” Cronin said. “The initial causes are no more important than the end.”
Cronin continued the lecture by describing various patterns of ending terrorism and comparing them to those used by al-Qaida. One trend commonly seen today is the transition, or reorientation, of groups who may begin as terrorists but later engage in criminal behavior or insurgency.
A terrorism campaign can end either through the fulfillment of its objectives or through failure, Cronin said, noting that failure can be caused by either implosion or by miscalculation of the group itself. Ultimately, she said, these groups often fail because of targeting errors that cause backlash and a loss of popular support for their group.
“By looking at historical patterns, al-Qaida will either end by implosion or transition,” concluded Cronin. “To do this, we must work with the backlash and spotlight their mistakes. Al-Qaida’s strategies are self-defeating.”