Jeff Skinner has had a much maligned 2021 season but it doesn’t have to stay that way.
Rather than just saying the Buffalo Sabres have been unlucky or even cursed this season, why not actually try and solve their mess this season? This is easier said than done, but the reality for this team is that the glaring holes that many fans have harped on stem back to issues that can be fixed without divine intervention as some require only minor tweaks.
The first issue to tackle here is forward Jeff Skinner. He was recently benched amidst some extreme shooting misfortune. Skinner has only one point in his 14 games played so far this year, on top of the fact that he has a $72 million price tag on his head and no results to show for it. A recent interview with head coach Ralph Krueger added to this problem.
“I just think it’s good for Jeff to take a look once from the outside …” Krueger said. This “on the outside” view appears to make sense given what his point total has been this year.
The problem here is that Skinner’s underlying numbers suggest he is the exceptional player that the Sabres thought they had when they signed his massive contract in 2019. His number of expected goals on the season is 2.95 goals according to Natural Stat Trick and his minutes this season are the lowest per game of any of his seasons for Buffalo. Not only that, but his delegation to the fourth line by Krueger to start the season only decreased the quality of teammates that he had in his breakout season in 2019 for a second straight year.
This leads into the biggest issue facing the Sabres at the moment: the fact that they have little idea what line combinations are effective. In many cases, the lines they throw out during games are a mix of teammates that do not play well together, and the team does little to correct this.
Skinner has been the largest victim of this problem since he most likely would have much more production if he were on the first line with some of the Sabres’ top talents in center Jack Eichel and center Sam Reinhart. Beyond that, it is clear from looking at advanced stats from Evolving-Hockey that forwards Kyle Okposo, Victor Olofsson and Tage Thompson have little value playing at even strength considering they have all cost the Sabres at least one expected goal below replacement at even strength this season.
The Sabres, who have access to this same data, have done nothing to correct this yet again. Why not try and correct it for them then?
Here are some proposed lines for Buffalo that might just change their fortunes going forward. First, the top line should consist of Skinner, Eichel and Reinhart as they are some of the most talented players on the roster. With an expanded arsenal of Eichel and Reinhart, Skinner could finally start to turn back into the player he was in 2019.
The second line would stay the same as the combination of forwards Taylor Hall and Dylan Cozens, along with center Eric Staal, have shown impressive chemistry together in their limited time together this season.
The third line is where things really start to change as the line becomes Olofsson, center Cody Eakin and forward Tobias Reider. The impact that Olofsson gives Buffalo on the power play cannot be overstated, and he needs a spot on one of their lines. With this move, it means that Okposo is relegated to the bench for good since his numbers this season have been unspectacular to say the least.
The final line is more or less the same and would consist of a split between forwards Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Apslund, along with center Curtis Lazar and forward Riley Sheahan. This line has been solid all season and both Asplund and Mittelstadt have performed well this season in limited fashion. Their spots on this line would only help an already strong line going forward.
In terms of defense pairs, it becomes a bit trickier due to recent injuries to the defense corps, but a good plan for the team in the future would be to play defenseman Rasmus Dahlin and newly called-up defenseman Jacob Bryson together as much as possible. They both have impressive speed and a high-flying pace to their games, and they would synergize together well.
The second pair should feature the duo of defensemen Colin Miller and Henri Jokiharju as their defensive mindsets and stable play would mesh well together and give the Sabres an experienced player who could mentor Jokiharju.
The third pair is much more volatile since the team may look to trade Brandon Montour in the future or to acquire a defenseman in the same vein. For now, it should be defensemen Montour and Brandon Davidson as they have both performed the best out of the Sabres remaining healthy defensemen and are worthy of a look together.
This is only a minor fix to the team, but one that is sure to reap benefits as it cuts out negative value and puts Skinner where he should be, all while adding to the Sabres’ youth movement as they look to finish their rebuild.